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The end of a decade of growth
“We have seen this trend and we have finally seen it,” said Đukić.Property prices have been rising steadily since 2014, but now we are seeing a correction for the first time - prices have fallen by around 2%. The main reasons for the cooling market are high interest rates, buyer caution and reduced availability of finance. In addition, the market is also affected by the uncertain geopolitical situation, from the war in Ukraine to trade tensions and global political instability.
Uneven shifts across regions
The market is not uniform: in Ljubljana and on the coast, prices are mostly stagnating or slightly falling, but demand for quality properties remains. By contrast, in smaller towns and less economically developed areas, the fall in prices is more pronounced. Đukić expects that in areas with a higher concentration of new buildings, such as the area behind Bežigrad, prices will stabilise or even correct as supply gradually catches up with demand.
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The impact of interest rates and fiscal policy
A possible cut in interest rates could stimulate demand, but it will not be enough. The availability of finance also remains key. In addition, demand for investment purchases has started to moderate, notably due to the announced tax changes, more complex legislation and expected restrictions on short-term rentals (e.g. Airbnb, Booking).
Real sales prices and the gap with advertised prices
Discounts are already present on the market, but as Đukić says, “good properties are still selling close to the advertised price”. The biggest gap between the advertised and the actual selling price (5-10%) occurs in lower quality units - without parking, elevators or in poorer locations.
State projects not yet having an impact
Although the State is announcing the construction of more publicly funded housing, these impacts are not yet visible on the market. Only when more completed but unsold projects become available can we expect to see more pressure on prices.
What about commercial real estate?
There has also been a drop in office prices - by around 3% on average, and up to 9% for offices. However, retail premises and warehouses remain stable, mainly due to high demand and limited supply.
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